I recently listened to the Tim Ferriss Show, featuring Tim Ferriss, Ramit Sethi, Josh Waitzkin ( I highly recommend listening to Tim’s interviews of Josh, he is an incredible person) and Adam Robinson. Click here to access the podcast.
Bio: Adam Robinson is the trusted outside global macro advisor to the heads of some of the world’s largest hedge funds and family offices.
Adam discusses two interesting ideas in the podcast about prospecting for investment ideas.
“That doesn’t make sense!” beware of the voice in your head or even if someone else mentions those words, it means that theirs or your working model is out of whack. (Podcast time @ 30.00).
Example: Sam Zeal (last name spelling unsure) is a real estate investor. Sam read in the paper that Starbucks was opening in Mongolia (in 2000), he thought that doesn’t make sense? He was so curious he decided to fly there, and he discovered that China had started mining in Mongolia, and it was at the beginning of the big China infrastructure build throughout the country.
The other idea is about how metal traders are always right about interest rates, according to Adam metal traders know where interest rates will be in 1-3 months time. (Podcast Time 39.45)
How? Apparently, there is an inverse relationship with Gold and Copper prices in relation to interest rates.
If copper prices rally against gold prices, interest rates will rally…
If gold prices rally against copper prices, interest rates will decline….
I find this hypothesis interesting and I considered investigating further, doing a back analysis to confirm if it’s true, but before jumping in, it is important to ask yourself is: ‘if it’s true, how then would it affect my investment process?’ after thinking about it, I realized, no it doesn’t change a thing, knowing what interest rates will do in five weeks time doesn’t help me that much…….So I dropped it.
There are also some great ideas shared by the others in the podcast and I recommend you take the time to listen to it…
Enjoy your weekend folks…